The National Water Policy provides a sound basis for reform but provincial water policies need much attention. The underpinning legal framework for national and provincial water management is incomplete and needs strengthening.
Commenting on water security, the report says that reaching upper-middle income by 2047 is an ambitious goal and will require significant change in the structure of the economy. Without reform, irrigation water use will limit water access by industry and services sectors, constraining economic growth. However, water scarcity need not limit economic growth. Irrigation water use can increase if efficiency improvements are made.
The study further states that changes in diet with increasing wealth will have significant impacts on commodity demand and hence on crop choices and water use. Four crops i.e rice, wheat, sugarcane and cotton represent 80 of Pakistan's water use but contribute only 5 per cent to GDP. Inadequate water supply and sanitation, floods and droughts cost 4 percent of GDP.
The Indus Delta, rivers and lakes are dying. Delta de-gradation costs more than $ 1 billion annually and undermines importan ecosystem services. The Indus Basin water balance shows a high level of internal recycling of irrigation water between surface and groundwater, and high water losses. Losses reflect inefficient irrigation as well as natural losses. Water resources outside the Indus Basin are very small but are locally very important.
Water availability per capita is falling but will stabilize as population growth slows with declining fertility. With strong demand management, especially through improved irrigation efficiency, future water demands can be met.
The report further states that water-born diseases kill 40,000 children each year and contribute to widespread childhood stunting . Flood and drought impacts are significant especially for women and children.
Poor water management is conservatively estimated to cost 4 percent of GDP or around $12 billion per year. Rivers, lakes and the extensive Indus Delta are severely degraded undermining important ecosystem services.
"Although biggest water challenges are internal to Pakistan, climate change is significant additional challenge," the report said, adding that with respect to climate change, there is no evidence of significant change in average water availability. Increase in variability within and between years expected with more extreme floods and droughts. Sea level will rise and coastal storms will be a challenge for Sindh.
Pakistan can get more economic, social and environmental benefits from its water, subject to urgent reforms to improve water use efficiency and service delivery.
Pakistan, the sixth most populous country in the world, is well-endowed with water but water availability per person is comparatively low. Water wastage is high and agricultural yields are low compared to most countries.
Although climate change and trans-boundary issues are a significant hindrance for Pakistan's water sector, the greatest challenges and opportunities are internal, not external, to Pakistan. So, improving water-use efficiency and productivity, delivery of water services in cities and in irrigation, and addressing environmental sustainability are the most pressing needs, according to this new analysis.
Throwing light on economic shifts, the report says that irrigation water consumption can increase but urban demand will eventually constrain and agriculture production will increase and change profile. Service provides the engine of economic growth. All this can be achieved while providing e-flows. New dams are not critical to this transformation but do provide important improvements in system performance and resilience.
The report says that there is poor quality of irrigation services which are not financially sustainable. Water distribution is inequatible and constrained by political economy. Tariffs are too low and costs too high. Widespread and worsening waterlogging and salinization especially in Sindh and long-term salt accumulation is a major risk to irrigation.
The participants also raised questions about the contents of the report and views of Dr Bill Young to which he responded. Panel of experts also discussed water related issues.
